Nov. 4, 2020
11:40 a.m.: I went to bed around 3:00 a.m. still pretty confident that Trump would win. As of now, it looks like Biden has a 90-95% chance of victory. As I said all day yesterday, when Trump looked solid, it ain’t over till it’s over…but the closer you get the less things are likely to change.
It looks like the Dems will hold the house and the Repubs will hold the Senate, though, again, things could change. The Dems perfected their long-pursued dream of Count-Votes-Until-You’re-Ahead-Then-Declare-Victory in 2018 and applied it even more effectively this time. (EX: They found 130,000 ballots in Wisconsin at 4:00 a.m. this morning and, magically, 125,000 were for Biden and, as of now, have handed him the state.)
No matter the outcome, half the population won’t accept it…and there won’t be much they can do except simmer, as Nixon voters did after 1960 and Gore and Kerry voters did after 2000 and 2004. The main takeaway, assuming Biden is elected, is that the Grand Bargain (1980’s–Republicans would take the economy; Democrats would take the culture) which precipitated the Frozen Silence (1980-2016) can now resume. Trump will have been merely an interruption.
So while, my predictions for this short-term result were mostly wrong, my prediction for the long-term fate of the U.S.A. is now back on course.
I’ll check back in if events warrant….Til then, it’s been fun!