I DON’T ENDORSE, I ONLY OBSERVE….

Ten Reasons Donald Trump Will Be Re-elected in 2020:

10) The Democrats have assembled a group of candidates who make the field of 17 Republicans Trump mowed through in 2016 look like the Founding Fathers.

9) On a related note, we’ve now had a good look at all the 2020 Dem contenders–none will be as good a candidate as Hillary Clinton, who was, in fact, a very strong candidate. (it was only after Election Day that she fell apart–getting back in this time will prove she’s the hardcore masochist I’ve always said Bill Clinton’s wife had to be.) There was a reason Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren didn’t get in last time. It wasn’t because they were the brave souls they’d need to be to take down Trump.

8) Trump was outspent at least 2 to 1 in the 2016 general. This time, he will probably outspend his opponent by that much.

7) It’s almost impossible to see even one state that went for Trump last time flipping against him, while several states he lost (Minnesota and New Hampshire chief among them) are in serious play, even according to anti-Trump pollsters. The Dem candidate probably won’t even contest traditional swing states like Ohio and Iowa, which will give Trump more time in states he thinks are winnable.

6) By this time, Trump has avoided at least seven attempts by the Swamp to draw him/us into, or further into, a foreign war (Syria and Hong Kong cooled off just this week, following attempted ramp-ups in/with Venezuela, Yemen, North Korea, and at least two serious attempts to engage Iran). It’s unlikely he will be drawn at this point and his voting base will see that as a promise delivered–it will make up for any lack of a border wall, which I thought he needed more progress on (progress he may well get by election day anyway).

5) The mountains of anecdotal evidence the media ignored in 2016 are being ignored again (attendance and enthusiasm at Trump’s tent revival-style rallies, the uselessness of traditional polling in gauging his appeal, his unique persuasion skills, etc.), which means he will yet again have the advantage of being underestimated.

4) Every attempt to bring him down has made him stronger. The internet is flooded with commentors who either sat out the last election or supported Trump very reluctantly and now say they will crawl over broken glass to vote for him. The reason cited is almost always some version of “Dems gone crazy.” More anecdotal evidence perhaps, but this wasn’t an observable phenomena last time. Partisan loathing has turned into that much more powerful emotion: Fear.

3) Delivering record low unemployment numbers to Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans month-after-month-after-month-after-month, is bound to win him a few percentage points in those demographics. A three point swing in his favor will equate to a landslide. It’s not improbable.

2) “I have fought for you” is a stronger message than “I will fight for you.”

1)  There’s an 80 percent chance he will not be impeached. If he is impeached there’s a good chance he won’t stand trial. If he does stand trial he won’t be removed and he’ll use it as a showcase for his strengths. You would think by now his opponents would have realized that Trump loves to fight–he loves doing what they hate doing and he holds their weakness and collegiality in contempt.

As do his voters.

Best guess? Trump will win more convincingly in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote more closely.

We can all check back in Nov. 2020 and see how I did. Lots of folks are predicting one way or the other, but I haven’t seen anyone put all their reasons in one basket so the exercise seemed useful, to clarify my own thinking if nothing else.

I’ll get to where Trump stands in history (world and U.S.), later on.

Won’t that be fun.

ALL THE NEWS THAT’S FIT TO FAKE

The Turkish “invasion” of Northern Syria (from whence they have been regularly attacked by U.S. backed terrorists for years) has created strange bedfellows in the wake of Donald Trump’s withdrawal of a few dozen troops from the area. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has joined the neocons on right wing radio in condemning the withdrawal (an embrace that will shock only those who don’t pay attention–always look to the paymasters), which Trump backed with the most impassioned anti-war speech ever given by an American president (at his Minnesota rally last week), and a threat of economic sanctions against Turkey if they exceed whatever latitude he has given them in private. Just another day in the life of the Trump Administration, which continues to redraw the political map that prevailed without serious opposition from 1980 to 2016 (aka the Frozen Silence).

But there are signs that the enablers of the Frozen Silence are a touch panicky. This is at least the seventh attempt to draw Trump into a Gulf of Tonkin situation and it is now on the verge of failing like all the rest. So yesterday ABC News tried one of the oldest tricks in the book: faking atrocities.

They were caught out in a matter of hours and slammed on social media, then forced to issue the standard “apology for an honest mistake” which will now be swept under the rug and dropped down the memory hole.

This is how we live now. I could post one of these every day and people would go right on accepting anything they see as long as it confirms what they already believe….But me and Eddie know how this ends.

Hey, Eddie, haven’t heard from you in a while.

Remind ’em:

ALLEN DULLES STRIKES AGAIN (From the Department of Redundancy Department)

Because, heck, even the Firesign Theatre* couldn’t make this up.

Thank God things soon changed and our Intelligence Community developed the kind of moral fiber that would never, ever allow them to assassinate an American president (circa 1963), or drive one from office (circa 1974), or sabotage military operations to keep one they didn’t like from being re-elected (circa 1979-80), or sheep dip an endless line of Senators and Governors from both parties to make sure you never, ever get to have a meaningful choice of presidents, as opposed to E-harmony style personality profiles (circa every election from 1984 to 2012), or stage a series of coup attempts against the first major party nominee they couldn’t be sure of controlling (circa 2016).

Thank God we are in the hands of a deep state that, in the words of Robert Christgau  “We know…is more resilient than those who had hopes for it feared and more humane than those who feared it assumed.”

Because, as we all know, it’s in the very nature of secret police forces and “deep states” to constantly and secretly reform themselves in the direction of decency.

77 straight days of LSD “treatments?”

It does make you wonder when they got to Joe Biden (aka Principal Poop). I mean the overlords and their faithful servants may have started with the old cliche of black men in southern prisons, but there’s no reason to think they stopped there.

* Inventors of the Department of Redundancy Department. Credit where credit’s due.

MADNESS IN THE HO– USE, BLAKE ON THE THRONE (Segue of the Day: 7/16/19)

Well, at least no one was beaten about the head with a staff of wood!

Those interested can go to C-Span or YouTube to catch various editions of the shenanigans in the House of Representatives today (Short version….there will be chaos and then tyranny). The funny part was when I had to go to the bathroom, where The Complete Poems of William Blake currently reside  and I swear this is what came up on Page 604, under “Milton.” I mean, I couldn’t make this up could I?

Who creeps into State Government like a caterpillar to destroy
To cast off the idiot Questioner who is always questioning,
But never capable of answering; who sits with a sly grin
Silent plotting when to question, like a thief in a cave;
Who publishes  doubt & calls it knowledge; whose Science is Despair, 
Whose pretence to knowledge is Envy, whose whole Science is
To destroy the wisdom of ages to gratify ravenous Envy
That rages round him like a Wolf day & night without rest
He smiles with condescension; he talks of Benevolence & Virtue
And those who act with Benevolence & Virtue, they murder time on time.

Of course, they’ll swear Donald Trump made them do it. For the cameras at least.

I have no idea why Lou Reed kept interrupting my thoughts, though. Must be the cough syrup. Else the part about villains always blinking their eyes.

JEFFERSON WILL GO FIRST….

Okay, Kate Smith is already gone

But, of the really big names, Jefferson will go first.

Because it’s not about statues…

And it’s not about the Confederacy. Taking out easy targets like Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson was never more than a loss leader.

The New Puritans have decided. All heresies must be eradicated. In order to save America, we’ll have to burn it.

Whe-e-e-e-e-e. Won’t that be fun!

Hey Eddie, tell all the dumbasses convinced they’ll one day dance in the rubble where we’re really at:

WHEW! FOR A MINUTE THERE I WAS NERVOUS…

(I’ll have my late-night dedication to Robert Mueller up one of these late nights. For now….)

After a day-and-a-half of monitoring my usual social-media feeds and assembling all the Mainstream Media takes, I was beginning to think I would have to do the heavy lifting on the essential meaning of Team Trump’s resounding victory over Team Mueller myself.

Lucky me, fervid anti-Trumper Matt Taibbi has stumbled around and, blind-squirrel style, at least assembled the outline.

Taibbi is still stuck on stupid in the manner of Trump’s intelligence. He seems to think his own initial reading of Trump as some sort of idiot-savant whose lucky streak is bound to end sometime (and probably soon) has somehow held up in the face of everything else he tells us here. But that only demonstrates how much counter-evidence our preferred narratives can withstand.

By all means, read the whole thing. I don’t agree with all of it but he’s got the gist right and suffice it to say that dozens, if not hundreds, of key members of the Swamp State (which I’m still thinking maybe we should call the Rump-Swab State–ya’ll feel free to weigh in on this), are now lying awake nights praying to the God they do not believe in (but who believes very much in them), that Donald Trump is not a vindictive man or at least Ivanka and Jared, the only people who would likely be entrusted with the execution of his response, will make less-than-able consiglieres should he bother to sweep his feckless opposition from the board.

The real message, as always, is that Trump is where he is because he is opposed by people whose depths of corruption, arrogance, and sense of entitlement are built on fifty-plus years of misgovernance and thirty-five of mal-governance and exceeded only by their rank stupidity.

Hey Eddie. It’s been a while. Think maybe you can help a brother out and remind ’em how it is?

POSSESSION IS NOT NINE-TENTHS OF THE LAW…

…It is ten-tenths.

Three Forks, Montana where Lewis and Clark proclaimed the Missouri to begin, is a long way from Charlottesville or Richmond, but the ambitions of the Virginians were very large, extending even beyond the boundaries of the Louisiana sold to Jefferson by Napoleon. The watershed of the Missouri is ample, but Virginian energy rushed with Lewis and Clark [both Virginians, as were Jefferson, James Madison, his Secretary of State, and Albert Gallatin, his Secretary of Treasury who “found the money” for the expedition, doubtless by maneuvers Donald Trump could learn a thing or two from if he really intends to build his wall–my note] across the Continental Divide, down its western slope, and into the basin of the Columbia River, which even Napoleon had neither claimed nor claimed to sell. When they reached the Pacific, Lewis and Clark asserted that the United States owned everything they had traversed, and, for a time, neither the British, Russians, Spanish or Indians, all of whom had a better title, were in a position to dispute them.

(Burr, Hamilton, and Jefferson: A Study in Character, Roger Kennedy, 2000)

Thus, was the Empire born.

TO THE REPUBLIC (Late Night Dedication: 2/17/19)

Now that even the “mainstream” (i.e., elite-approved) media is acknowledging (albeit with a wink and a nod) the coup attempt carried out against Donald Trump by his own FBI and DOJ (after Obama’s FBI and DOJ failed to prevent him from winning the 2016 election despite using every trick in their book except assassination), we have the answer to whether or not such public knowledge (and it’s  now very public, heck it even made 60 Minutes, followed immediately by the usual nondenial denial) would cause anyone to turn a hair.

And the answer is . . .

No.

No surprise.

Just another day in the life of the former United States of America, a place I remember well enough to lament its passing:

FROM WHICH WE DO NOT LEARN (Found in the Connection: Rattling Loose End #146)

Vietnam 1907:

Patriots took to the streets and lanes with scissors, giving haircuts to all who wanted them, and to many who did not. The French were rightly suspicious of the political implications of this activity. They were also exasperated at being put in a position where they either had to ignore revolutionary agitation or appear ridiculous by objecting to haircuts exactly like their own. Finally, despite the snickers it aroused, an official investigation was launched into what was called “Le Mouvement de la Tonsure.”…

Although the possession of opium was a criminal offense in France, the French administration purchased raw opium in India and Yunnan, brought it to Saigon for processing, and then sold it at official outlets at a profit of 400 to 500 percent. With sardonic humor, Vietnamese observed that the French at least granted them freedom to poison themselves, a liberty denied the inhabitants of the mother country. But indirect taxation through state monopolies took other and even more invidious forms. The state alcohol monopoly was bitterly resented. Rice whiskey was an essential part of the many feast days celebrated by each family and each village during the course of the year. Not only did the Vietnamese have to pay more money for an inferior product, they were also forced to purchase it in carefully stamped official bottles, which raised the actual cost by about 900 percent.

Predictably, the opium monopoly was threatened by extensive smuggling activity, and the alcohol monopoly resulted in much illicit distilling. The French response was direct, brutal, and effective in the short run. Networks of secret agents and informers were organized, and the law was changed to permit unregulated entry, search, and seizure in private homes in a manner never before tolerated under either French or Vietnamese law. While the use of opium was only encouraged, the purchase of alcohol was made compulsory. Quota systems were established whereby a province was obliged to purchase a certain amount of whiskey each month, based on “normal usage.” Then within each province every village had to buy a certain quantity of whiskey or face harsh punishment on the charge that illicit distilling was being condoned. The evils produced by these techniques of enforcement generated even more resentment than the indirect taxes themselves.

Although the French opium policies were racist and exploitive, and the alcohol monopoly forced the Vietnamese to purchase a beverage they did not like in bottles they did not need at a price they could not afford, the salt monopoly was even worse.

(Neil L. Jamieson, Understanding Vietnam, 1993)

Within fifty years the French had been chased from Vietnam, leaving we who had learned nothing except the astounding profits to be made from the drug trade (especially if you brought it home, where the real money was) to take their place.

They’ve been spiraling downward ever since. Thus to empires.

Ours will go the same way. The massive, across-the-board elite resistance to Donald Trump’s attempt to draw down in Syria and (horrors!) Afghanistan, is more proof that nothing changes in imperial capitals, except possibly the tactics deployed to meet any threat to the status quo.

Hey Freda, tell ’em what the first step on the road to freedom is…