Noon: Live blogging of election day will begin around 1:00 p.m….back pain permitting!
1:00 P.M.: After softening last week, the Dow has picked up about 1,000 points yesterday and today. If this holds through the day, it probably means the big boys on Wall Street, who were sure Trump would lose last time, expect a Trump win, although I haven’t seen any bold statements this time around to match Paul Krugman’s 2016 election eve prediction that if Trump was elected the stock market would crash and “never recover.” Actually Krugman (Nobel prize winner for economics and NY Times columnist) has recently called into question his own previously unquestioned championing of Reaganomics–which, as an uber-liberal, he got away with supporting for twenty-five years the old-fashioned way…by calling it something else). Fun times!
1: 20 p.m.: FYI: I expect Trump to win both Florida and the election. Next hour, I’ll link to my Oct. 2019 prediction and review how my Ten Reasons Trump will win reelection post is holding up. Kind of interested in this myself as I’ve forgotten half the reasons.
2:00 p.m.: Interesting tweet rom Florida governor Ron DeSantis in the last hour predicting that state will be called for Trump by 9:00 p.m. Well THAT will be fun. Probably not a good sign for Biden that Ivanka Trump outdrew he and Obama combined at competing Florida/Georgia rallies last week….outdrew them by a lot. Again, I’m not predicting or endorsing, just trying to read the tea leaves.
2:45 p.m.: Here’s a link to my October, 2019 post, Ten Reasons Donald Trump will be re-elected. I’ll break down my accuracy a little later!
4:50 p.m.: Just returned from the bank…still trying to clear up a mortgage payment from October. Submitted an online payment 5 times…never went through. Finally went down today and got a money order. News from the radio that Republican turnout is well up from 2016 in Florida and Georgia. Market stayed up. All good signs for Trump. Best line of the day so far, a wag on talk radio who said store owners in big cities painting “We Support Black Lives Matter” on the plywood boarding their windows is like turkeys praying Thanksgiving will be cancelled. Mobs can’t read.
6:25 p.m.: Because of the Panhandle, Florida is the only east coast state where parts of the state vote an hour later than the rest. I did not drive by any polling place today so have no idea if there are lines around here. My county (heavily African-American) and the adjacent one (state capital and college town) are the only counties in the northern part of the state that went for Clinton in 2016. Two of only seven in the state–which tells you how important Dade and Broward are for Biden. Any softening there and he’ll lose the state by a much bigger margin than she did. Since actual voting results from here won’t be announced until 8:00 p.m., I’ll do the first half of my 2019 prediction analysis now and save the rest for next hour:
10) The Democrats have assembled a group of candidates who make the field of 17 Republicans Trump mowed through in 2016 look like the Founding Fathers.
Update: This wasn’t really a prediction, just an assessment. The Dems shut out Tulsi Gabbard, their only candidate possessing either charisma or competence on the stump, early on. I assumed they would but I didn’t put it here–give me half a point.
9) On a related note, we’ve now had a good look at all the 2020 Dem contenders–none will be as good a candidate as Hillary Clinton, who was, in fact, a very strong candidate. (it was only after Election Day that she fell apart–getting back in this time will prove she’s the hardcore masochist I’ve always said Bill Clinton’s wife had to be.) There was a reason Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren didn’t get in last time. It wasn’t because they were the brave souls they’d need to be to take down Trump.
Update: This one’s still hinging on a Biden victory. I’ll grade it later.
8) Trump was outspent at least 2 to 1 in the 2016 general. This time, he will probably outspend his opponent by that much.
Update: I was wrong on this one. Trump’s been outspent by even more than last time–by some counts much more. Unless the info changes, I get no points on this one!
7) It’s almost impossible to see even one state that went for Trump last time flipping against him, while several states he lost (Minnesota and New Hampshire chief among them) are in serious play, even according to anti-Trump pollsters. The Dem candidate probably won’t even contest traditional swing states like Ohio and Iowa, which will give Trump more time in states he thinks are winnable.
Update: Again hinging on results….but I’ll be surprised if I can’t claim a point on this one.
6) By this time, Trump has avoided at least seven attempts by the Swamp to draw him/us into, or further into, a foreign war (Syria and Hong Kong cooled off just this week, following attempted ramp-ups in/with Venezuela, Yemen, North Korea, and at least two serious attempts to engage Iran). It’s unlikely he will be drawn at this point and his voting base will see that as a promise delivered–it will make up for any lack of a border wall, which I thought he needed more progress on (progress he may well get by election day anyway).
Update: I give myself a full point for this one. There were a couple of more attempts to draw Trump into a war…instead he forged numerous historic peace deals in the Middle East and the Balkans. And he got four hundred miles of border wall built. And yes, his base counted those as promises delivered.
So-o-o-o-o: 1 and a half points out of a possible three with two hinging. I’ll end up with either 30 percent (bad) or 70 (pretty good)…will check back later!
7:40 p.m.: Latest news has 86% of Dade County votes counted with Biden leading by 9%. Clinton won the country by 33% in 2016. Hmmmm….
8:10 p.m.: With the Panhandle just now beginning to report, the tied presidential race has moved to Trump having about a 66,000 vote lead. He was in better shape in 2016 at this point….but Broward is reporting 99% in. It will take a miracle for Biden to win…but I’m not calling it quite yet.
8:23 p.m.: Calling Florida for Trump. Will be interested in how long it will take CNN. Don’t have a tv hookup so if anyone is following them let me know.
9:11 p.m.: As of now, no major news org. has called Florida. Trump’s lead has only grown since I called it 45 minutes ago. It is mathematically impossible for Biden to win. On the other hand, Biden is looking very good in NC, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I’m starting to think it could be very close in the Electoral College….which is the recipe for a drawn out fight stretching into December.
9:37 p.m.: Just heard an interesting stat from an organization whose name I didn’t catch…of the counties that have reported 100% of their votes, Trump has gained 11 percent among Hispanics, 4% among Blacks. This is offset somewhat by his losing 4% among….wealthy whites. Strange days indeed.
10:16 p.m.: British betting markets, in Biden’s favor all day, has just flipped to Trump. Biden’s sizeable leads in Ohio and North Carolina have vanished. If Trump takes those states the Electoral College is virtually out of reach, though not impossible.
10:53 p.m.: Using CNN’s calls (still no Florida), and state by state data, I have Trump with 204 Electoral votes and Biden with 192. This is a very close replay of 2016. Whoever gets the close states will win. Trending Trump right now but certainly not out of reach for Biden.
11:45 p.m.: I now have Trump at 215 safe Electoral votes, Biden at 207. Still trending Trump…he’s leading in more than enough states to win. But I don’t know other states like I know Florida so I’m not calling the race yet. CNN has still not called Florida, which means that they have waited longer this time than in 2016, when Trump led, and ultimately won by a much smaller margin.
12:45 a.m.: CNN still has not called Florida, though Fox and a few others have. They’ve stopped counting votes in Philadelphia, the old Chicago trick of finding out how many votes you need, which in this cse would be several hundred thousand.
12:49 a.m.: CNN calls Florida. I only beat them by two-and-a-half hours last time. This time, I beat them by four hours and change. Good times. I think I’m gonna celebrate with a pizza tomorrow night…I mean, later tonight.
I predict Trump will be declared the winner sometime around 2:30 a.m. That’s without PA.
2:05 a.m.: Well, Georgia and North Carolina have joined Philadelphia in stopping or stalling their vote counts so that leaves neither candidate with a path to victory tonight. Worst of all worlds but I’m going to bed!
Thanks to everyone who viewed, visited or commented. This was a big hit for the blog and well worthwhile!